ABSTRACT
According to a survey conducted in 2005-2006, 1.6% of the population in Ethiopia is blind, nearly three times the world average. Nearly 50% of these cases of blindness (more than 900,000 individuals) are due to cataracts. Although the cost of cataract surgery is low, poverty and lack of access mean many people do not receive the surgery. This paper aims to measure the net benefits associated with improved visual acuity in Ethiopia through increased access to manual small incision cataract surgeries. Previously published estimates of the benefits of cataract surgery in low to middle-income countries were used to estimate the benefits of surgery in Ethiopia using the benefit transfer approach. To overcome limitations due to the small number of observations available, Monte Carlo simulations with 100,000 iterations were run. They were used to construct distributions for the marginal costs and marginal benefits of manual small incision cataract surgery in Ethiopia. Based on the current Ethiopian population and the incidence of blindness due to cataracts, we find the estimated total net benefits to be $35.67 million. The positive net benefits of cataract surgery imply that it would be socially optimal to subsidize these surgeries in Ethiopia. Given that we consider a one-time intervention for a country with a growing population, we believe our net benefits estimates are conservative.
Keywords
Cataract. MSICS, Ethiopia, Benefit-Cost Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulations